When comparing the results of two consecutive presidential elections, we can calculate the swing of each county: how much the vote changed from the previous election. If in 2016 a random county was D+8 and last year it was D+4, that's a 4 point swing toward R. Typically, across all 3000+ counties in the US, … Continue reading Sudden Swings

Today I'll be talking about Adjusted Trends. As you may recall, Adjusted Trend compares how county voted from one election to the next, adjusting for the national lean. This determines which way they are swinging (i.e., becoming more Democratic or Republican). For example, Yamika county in Washington state in 2016 was R+13.1 and in 2020 … Continue reading Interesting Trends