Pop Quiz: Name the two states that have the highest percentage of residents who were born in the state. Answer: Louisiana and Michigan. You probably didn't see that coming; I know I didn't. About four of five Louisianans (78.05%) were born there. Of the remainder, 17.8% were born in other states, and 4.2% were foreign … Continue reading “Are You From Here?”
Author: Jeff Eby
Sudden Swings
When comparing the results of two consecutive presidential elections, we can calculate the swing of each county: how much the vote changed from the previous election. If in 2016 a random county was D+8 and last year it was D+4, that's a 4 point swing toward R. Typically, across all 3000+ counties in the US, … Continue reading Sudden Swings
Interesting Trends
Today I'll be talking about Adjusted Trends. As you may recall, Adjusted Trend compares how county voted from one election to the next, adjusting for the national lean. This determines which way they are swinging (i.e., becoming more Democratic or Republican). For example, Yamika county in Washington state in 2016 was R+13.1 and in 2020 … Continue reading Interesting Trends
Florida: not pivotal, but still interesting
At the national level, Joe Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's margin by 2.4 points (Clinton "won" by 2.1%, while Biden beat Trump by 4.5%). In 2016 Trump won Florida by a mere 1.2%, so all things being equal, Biden should have taken Florida. But of course, all things aren't equal, and Trump improved his Florida … Continue reading Florida: not pivotal, but still interesting
2020, one state at a time
The full 2020 election results at the county level are available, and I'll be looking at a few key states. Let's start of Pennslyvania, because why not? Here are PA's counties, shaded red or blue depending on how strongly they supported the R or D candidate. Light shades means the vote was close to 50/50; … Continue reading 2020, one state at a time
What Does 90% Effective Mean?
There's been great news on the Covid-19 vaccination front the past couple of weeks, with excellent preliminary results for vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. Both report higher-than-expected effectiveness (Pfizer 90%, Moderna 94.5%). But what does it mean for a vaccination to be "90% effective"? (I'll use the Pfizer number because it makes the math easier). … Continue reading What Does 90% Effective Mean?
Pennsylvania, of course
We all know the peculiarities of our presidential electoral college system. Nowhere is it more apparent then in the 'tipping point' states that determine elections. Because of the winner-take-all appropriation of electoral votes, small changes in those states can have huge ramifications. Take Pennsylvania for example, since that was the state on everyone's mind this … Continue reading Pennsylvania, of course
I’ve got a bad feeling about this…
We all know that the Covid-19 case count has been increasing pretty dramatically the past month in the United States: But the good news is that the deaths from Covid continue to drop. The chart below shows the daily deaths, through last weekend. The solid line is a 7-day rolling average, which smooths out the … Continue reading I’ve got a bad feeling about this…
Happy Bobby Bonilla Day!
It's July 1st, which means that the New York Mets have to make a yearly payment to a baseball player who hasn't played for them in 20 years. In 1999, the Mets signed Bobby Bonilla to an ill-advised contract. Bonilla, 36 years old at the time, was on the downside of his career, and it … Continue reading Happy Bobby Bonilla Day!
Base Rate Fallacy
Pop Quiz. Let's say you take a Covid-19 antibody test. The test has an accuracy of 90%. To be more specific, both its sensitivity (the proportion of actual positives that are correctly identified as such) and specificity (the proportion of actual negatives that are correctly identified as such) are 90%. The test comes back positive. … Continue reading Base Rate Fallacy